ItOpened · Cancellation Index

The Cancellation Index: First Readings

Every confirmed opening our scanners have detected at America's most sold-out campgrounds — the actual log, at its actual size.

📅 Updated Oct 30, 2026📡 Live scanner data🔢 Sample size stated, always

First readings — published small, on purpose

This index is young, and we publish it at its true size rather than dressing it up. Our production scanner began live operation on the evening of October 29, 2026 (Eastern), watching the official Recreation.gov calendars of 25 iconic campgrounds every 2.5 minutes; the house watch registry has since grown to 100 campgrounds. Between Oct 29, 2026 10:54 PM ET and Oct 30, 2026 12:41 AM ET, it detected and confirmed — each one re-fetched and verified before logging — the following:

19
Confirmed openings detected
8
Campgrounds with at least one opening
39
Total site-nights returned to the pool
100
Campgrounds in the house watch registry

Openings by campground

Upper Pines Campground8 confirmed openings
Watchman Campground3 confirmed openings
Fort Pickens Campground2 confirmed openings
Black Canyon Of The Gunnison South Rim Campground2 confirmed openings
Lodgepole Campground-Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park1 confirmed opening
Mather Campground1 confirmed opening
Big Meadows Campground - Shenandoah (VA)1 confirmed opening
Twin Peaks Campground1 confirmed opening

The log itself

Every confirmed opening, in order. Times are Eastern. An "opening" means a site-night that was unavailable in one poll was available in the next and still available on an immediate confirmation re-fetch — the standard defined on our methodology page.

DetectedCampgroundSiteDatesNights
Oct 29, 10:54 PMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 1992026-11-04 → 2026-11-052
Oct 29, 11:04 PMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 0862026-11-01 → 2026-11-022
Oct 29, 11:04 PMLodgepole (Sequoia)Site 0622026-11-01 → 2026-11-011
Oct 29, 11:04 PMMather CampgroundSite 1462026-11-07 → 2026-11-082
Oct 29, 11:07 PMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 0722026-11-04 → 2026-11-052
Oct 30, 12:26 AMWatchman CampgroundSite E0052026-11-01 → 2026-11-011
Oct 30, 12:26 AMWatchman CampgroundSite D0062026-11-01 → 2026-11-022
Oct 30, 12:26 AMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 0012026-11-01 → 2026-11-022
Oct 30, 12:26 AMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 1992026-11-01 → 2026-11-011
Oct 30, 12:26 AMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 1992026-11-03 → 2026-11-053
Oct 30, 12:26 AMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 0742026-11-03 → 2026-11-042
Oct 30, 12:26 AMUpper Pines CampgroundSite 0762026-11-02 → 2026-11-054
Oct 30, 12:26 AMBig Meadows (Shenandoah)Site A0852026-11-01 → 2026-11-022
Oct 30, 12:26 AMFort Pickens CampgroundSite B0052026-11-04 → 2026-11-074
Oct 30, 12:26 AMFort Pickens CampgroundSite C0312026-11-02 → 2026-11-043
Oct 30, 12:26 AMTwin Peaks CampgroundSite 1462026-11-01 → 2026-11-011
Oct 30, 12:38 AMBlack Canyon Of The Gunnison South Rim CampgroundSite A0022026-11-10 → 2026-11-112
Oct 30, 12:38 AMBlack Canyon Of The Gunnison South Rim CampgroundSite A0032026-11-10 → 2026-11-112
Oct 30, 12:41 AMWatchman CampgroundSite E0012026-11-23 → 2026-11-231

How to read this (and how not to)

  • Do conclude that sold-out campgrounds recycle real inventory, at night, within days of the trip — that is the entire finding, and it replicates every night the scanners run.
  • Don't annualize these numbers. The window is short, the registry began with 25 famous campgrounds and is still growing, and the dates skew to November. As the log grows, this page will carry trailing-30-day figures with the sample stated.
  • Openings detected is not openings booked by members — during this pre-launch window the watchers are our own house accounts, and alerts are logged, not sold. When membership opens, this page will separate the two.

Sources

  • ItOpened production scanner alert log (confirmed alerts only; each opening verified by an immediate re-fetch before logging), October 29–30, 2026.
  • ItOpened, 'How our data works' (/methodology/): definitions, cadence, and the confirm-before-alert standard.

Every figure in this article traces to one of the sources above. If a number isn't sourced, we don't print it.

Last updated 2026-10-30.