itOpened Blog · Cancellation Data
No park in our log plans further ahead than the Channel Islands. Across 303 confirmed openings since Oct 29, 10:54 PM ET at five watched island facilities, the median opening was detected 21 days before the stay — and at Scorpion Campground on Santa Cruz Island, which supplies 240 of the 303, the median lead is 24 days, the farthest of any campground we measure. The structure explains itself: these are boat-only campgrounds, reached by ferry from Ventura, where a campsite is one half of a two-booking trip. Scorpion's openings also live the slow island clock — a median 25h 20m across 80 completed cycles — and every one of its 31 directory campsites has already surfaced in the log. Around it, the four smaller island facilities add 63 openings whose counts we print and whose survival medians we withhold: none has the completed cycles to carry one. One park, counted island by island.

Watch it with itOpened
Santa Cruz Island Scorpion produced 240 confirmed openings in eleven days of watching — detected a median 24 days before the stay and surviving a median 25h 20m. Our scanners poll it around the clock and text you when the next opening confirms.
Proof, from our own scanners: 240 confirmed openings at Scorpion since Oct 29, 2026 — each one re-verified before logging. See the live cancellation index.
Watch Scorpion openingsFree to start. We never book, hold, or resell — you book it yourself, in your own account, at the normal price. Fees pay for monitoring; openings are first-come and cannot be guaranteed.
Headline: 303 confirmed openings across five watched Channel Islands facilities; park median lead 21 days, Scorpion median lead 24 days; Scorpion median survival 25h 20m (n=80 completed cycles) with all 31 of its directory campsites represented; the other four facilities' survival medians withheld (n=5, 10, 1, 9).
As of Nov 11, 05:38 AM ET — measurement window Oct 29, 10:54 PM ET – Nov 11, 05:38 AM ET (Eastern); stays 2026-11-01 – 2026-12-31.
Method: confirmed openings from the production alert log (each re-fetched and verified before logging), filtered to the five watched Channel Islands facilities; survival from the closure log's completed, unambiguous life cycles for the same facilities; lead = stay start date minus detection date (Eastern).
The park table first:
| Facility | Confirmed openings | Distinct campsites | Median survival |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz Island Scorpion | 240 | 31 | 25h 20m (n=80) |
| Anacapa Island | 17 | 6 | withheld — too few completed cycles |
| Santa Rosa Island | 23 | 9 | withheld — too few completed cycles |
| Santa Barbara Island | 3 | 3 | withheld — too few completed cycles |
| Santa Cruz Island Del Norte Backcountry | 20 | 4 | withheld — too few completed cycles |
The frame is the park's geography. Channel Islands' campgrounds sit on islands reached only by boat — the park concessioner Island Packers from Ventura Harbor, or private boat — and Recreation.gov's Scorpion listing is blunt about the order of operations: visitors are required to arrange boat transportation to the island before reserving a campsite, camping reservations are required before arriving, and there are no walk-ups. Scorpion Canyon Campground, on the largest island, holds 31 sites in all — 25 individual sites and six group sites — and can be reserved up to six months ahead. Our directory, built from the Recreation.gov RIDB export, lists the same 31 for Scorpion, 16 for Anacapa, 16 for Santa Rosa, 21 for Santa Barbara and 9 for Del Norte Backcountry. Our scanner watches all five facilities: the park's reservable island system as our registry defines it.

Lead time is where the islands stand alone. The park-wide median lead of 21 days — 24 at Scorpion — is roughly four times the mainland pattern, and there is no release cliff inside it (a single opening at exactly 14 days park-wide). The flow is cancellations, but cancellations from a different kind of trip: a Channel Islands night is the second half of a two-part booking, campsite plus boat, made weeks ahead because the boat schedule demands it. When the trip moves, it moves early. This blog has measured the far-ahead effect before — openings detected a month out live longer than last-minute ones — and the islands are that effect at full strength, produced by geography rather than by a release calendar like Kipahulu's.
Scorpion is the park's deep water: 240 openings, 79.2% of the park's flow, from 31 distinct campsites — every campsite in its directory listing. In eleven days, the entire campground's inventory has passed through the cancellation market at least once. Its openings survive a median 25h 20m (n=80), the slow clock of far-ahead flow: a Scorpion opening is a planner's decision, taken over a day, not a sprinter's. The smaller islands are thinner in every dimension — Santa Rosa 23 openings, Del Norte 20, Anacapa 17, Santa Barbara 3 — and this post prints their counts exactly and their survival medians not at all, because their completed cycles (n=10, 9, 5, 1) sit under the twenty this blog requires. That restraint is the method working as intended: the islands' small campgrounds will get their numbers when the log has earned them.
Work a month ahead, and bring the boat into the plan from the first minute. The openings you want surface a median 24 days out at Scorpion, so a watch set for 'sometime next month' is fishing the right water here — the opposite of the last-minute desert game. At a 25h 20m median survival, you usually have a day to line up the Island Packers sailing that matches your campsite dates; but line it up you must, because Recreation.gov requires the boat to be arranged before the campsite is reserved, and a won campsite with no sailing to reach it is a story, not a trip. Treat the smaller islands as long-game watches: their openings are real but rare in this log, and each one is worth answering the day it fires.
The window is eleven days in the islands' cool, rough-water shoulder season; November-through-May sailings are weather-sensitive in a way our log cannot see, and nothing here describes the summer peak. Four of the five facilities have counts too small for survival claims, and this post makes none for them. San Miguel Island's campground is not in our watch registry, so 'the park's system' here means the five watched facilities, named in the table. What survives the caveats is the horizon: 303 verified openings, detected further ahead than anywhere else we measure, in the one park where the trip has to be planned before it can be cancelled.
Watch it with itOpened
Santa Cruz Island Scorpion produced 240 confirmed openings in eleven days of watching — detected a median 24 days before the stay and surviving a median 25h 20m. Our scanners poll it around the clock and text you when the next opening confirms.
Proof, from our own scanners: 240 confirmed openings at Scorpion since Oct 29, 2026 — each one re-verified before logging. See the live cancellation index.
Watch Scorpion openingsFree to start. We never book, hold, or resell — you book it yourself, in your own account, at the normal price. Fees pay for monitoring; openings are first-come and cannot be guaranteed.
Reservations are required before arriving — there are no walk-ups — and for Scorpion, Recreation.gov requires visitors to arrange boat transportation to the island (via the park concessioner Island Packers, or private boat) before reserving a campsite. Scorpion's sites can be reserved up to six months in advance.
31 in all: 25 individual sites and six group sites, per Recreation.gov and Island Packers — matching our directory's count. Our log has recorded openings from all 31 of them.
Far ahead of the stay: the median opening in our log was detected 21 days before it — 24 days at Scorpion — because island trips are planned around boat schedules weeks in advance, and replanned on the same horizon.
Scorpion's completed cycles give a median survival of 25h 20m (n=80). The other four watched facilities' medians are withheld — their completed cycles number 5 (Anacapa), 10 (Santa Rosa), 1 (Santa Barbara) and 9 (Del Norte), under our 20-cycle printing threshold.
Every figure in this article traces to one of the sources above. If a number isn't sourced, we don't print it.
Last updated 2026-11-09.